He won the first two, but lost the third, damn it. Death came for him three times, and he played him three times. Half of the half-dozen events I mention were with a single character, somehow. The chess event can happen multiple times to one person. In addition to just health, that modifier can also serve to protect you from an otherwise fatal disease, vanishing and taking the disease with it (had it happen for me with Pneumonia in my current Ironman, at the point where I believe it would have otherwise killed me). The reward is a modifier called "Death's Gift" which gives +2.0 health.
I don't go for the option with the highest percentage "Great move" but rather the lowest percentage "Bad move." I can't speak with certainty, but every single time that event comes up, I let the guy stay with me, and I take black. I believe some of the intrigue/deception stats/traits help as well (you can cheat at one point). Genius, Quick, and Shrewd all help, as does Game Master.
I've had the event probably half a dozen times, and I believe I'm 4 for 6 surviving so far.
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